经济增长和实际利率的关系分析

On the Correlation between Economic Growth and Real Interest

从新古典增长模型“索罗—斯旺模型”中我们可以推导出如下结论:经济增长和实际利率存在正相关关系,但不是实际利率的提高引起了经济增长速度的提高,也不是经济增长速度的提高引起了实际利率的提高。国有商业银行的产权改革、利率市场化是保证今后我国经济持续增长的必要条件。文章最后对今后我国经济增长和实际利率的趋势作了预测。

Based on the Neo-classic growth model of Solow-Swan Model, we can draw a conclusion; there is a positive correlation between economic growth and real interest. But neither high real interest rate causes high economic growth nor high economic growth causes high real interest rate; the property right reform of the state-owned commercial banks and the interest rate determined by the market mechanism are the necessary conditions for a sustained growth in the national economy. At last we predict the trend of economic growth and real interest rate in future.