雨季段中长期预报模糊聚类模型及其应用

Mid and long term hydrology forecast model and its application

为了克服对中小流域作径流预报时收集预报因子的困难 ,在中长期径流模糊聚类预报模型基础上 ,结合径流的周期变化规律 ,提出了雨季段中长期模糊聚类预报模型。该模型从雨季段径流的周期性规律中提取预报因子 ,把模糊聚类预报模型从年径流预报推广至雨季段径流预报。在对丰潭水电站雨季段径流的预报中 ,取得了满意的结果。

It is difficult to gather forecast factors in hydrology forecast in small and medium watersheds. This paper presents a fuzzy clustering forecast model (FCFM) to predict mid and long-term hydrology in rainy seasons, based upon the annually FCFM and the periodicity of the hydrology. The developed model extends the applicability of FCFM from annual predictions to rainy-season predictions, and it is capable of extracting forecast factors from the periodicity of the rainy-reason runoffs. The model was employed to forecast the rainy-season hydrology of the Fengtan drainage area and satisfactory results were obtained.