摘要
本文在分析边际电价影响因素上 ,认为其是一种与时段有关的时间序列过程。文中提出的时段分离组成法可以对该时间序列的长期趋势与随机影响项进行分别预测 ,再进行叠加。该方法符合边际电价变化特点 ,在应用上是可行的。
The system marginal price related to the period is a time serial process during analyzing the influencing factors of SMP. The compositive method of separated period can respectively forecast the appulsive and stochastic factors of the time serial, then the two parts are added together. The method is in accord with the variational characteristics of SMP, hence it is practicable in application.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第2期110-113,共4页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
关键词
水文
边际电价
时段分离组成法
预测
hydrology
SMP (system marginal price)
compositive method with separated periods
forecast
