边际电价预测的时段分离组成法

The compositive method with separated periods in the forecast of system marginal price

本文在分析边际电价影响因素上 ,认为其是一种与时段有关的时间序列过程。文中提出的时段分离组成法可以对该时间序列的长期趋势与随机影响项进行分别预测 ,再进行叠加。该方法符合边际电价变化特点 ,在应用上是可行的。

The system marginal price related to the period is a time serial process during analyzing the influencing factors of SMP. The compositive method of separated period can respectively forecast the appulsive and stochastic factors of the time serial, then the two parts are added together. The method is in accord with the variational characteristics of SMP, hence it is practicable in application.