我国“三废”排放的库兹涅茨曲线特征及其成因的灰色关联度分析

Kuznets Characteristics of “Three Wastes” in China and the Gray Incidence Analysis of Their Causes of Formation

选取我国1985—2 0 0 3年经济与环境数据,在SAS统计软件的支持下,建立我国经济发展水平与“三废”排放状况的计量模型,并对二者的关系进行曲线模拟;分析“三废”排放的库兹涅茨曲线特征,并通过计算环境状况及其影响因子之间的灰色关联度,定量剖析了我国“三废”排放的库兹涅茨曲线成因。通过以上模拟、分析、计算,结果表明:我国“三废”排放的库兹涅茨曲线并不都是标准环境库兹涅茨的倒“U”型,而是呈现倒“U”、正“U”和“三次曲线”三种类型。

Based on economic and environmental statistical data covering 1985 to 2003, a model between environmental quality (“three wastes”) and economic growth is established and the characteristic of the Kuznets analysed. At last,the gray incidence between environmental and their effects factors is calculated. The results lead to three main conclusions: 1) the environmental Kuznet`s curve of China has three forms: inverted-U, U, cubic curve; 2) it is not appropriate to generalize the emergence of standard EKC for all environmental indicators along with economic growth; 3) The result shows that economic factors may be important, but social and human factors should also be taken into account, such as environmental policy, environmental investment, environmental awareness, energy use, and city size.