海岸带城市环境—经济系统的协调发展评价及应用——以天津市为例

Evaluation of Coordinated Development of Economy-Environment System in Coastal Zone City and Its Application——A case study on Tianjin city

在海岸带城市的环境—经济系统分析的基础上,建立了适用于海岸带城市的环境—经济协调发展评价指标体系,并以天津市为例,采用综合指数法对其协调度和综合发展水平进行了计算。结果表明,天津市环境与经济发展关系相对趋于协调,但1995年后天津市的环境经济协调发展模式已从经济增长滞后型发展为环境质量滞后型。利用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对天津市未来15年的经济协调度和发展水平进行预测,发现天津市环境与经济发展协调度在未来将显现下降趋势,从2 0 0 0年的0 .95下降到2 0 15年的0 .5 9,城市综合发展水平在2 0 0 5年之后也开始呈下降趋势。

Based on the coordinated development of economy-environment system in the coastal zone city, a set of index system of economy-environment was built up in this paper, including four aspects:economy, environment, resources, and ocean industry.Based on the analysis of the present condition and transforming direction of the economic development in Tianjin city and the quantification of various evaluation indices, this paper applied the evaluation model to the coordinated development of the economy-environment of Tianjin city. The results show that coordinated degree of economy-environment will drop in the future, from 0.95(superior lever of coordinated development) of 2000 to 0.59(inferior level of coordinated development) of 2015, unless the current economic development mode is changed. The comprehensive development level of Tianjin city also shows a trend to descent.Tianjin city should transform the economic development mode, take environmental protection as the prioring, and all make a sense to the development of Tianjin city.