农业结构调整对全国粮食安全的影响分析——以粮食主产区为例

Agricultural Structure Adjustment and Its Effect on China's Food Safety—— Case study of the main food supply regions

基于粮食主产区农业发展及其结构调整中面临的问题分析,指出近5年来导致我国粮食产量持续下降的主要原因在于农业结构调整。大规模的“压粮扩经”趋势若不能有效控制,必将对国家粮食安全带来冲击。对2 0 0 5 -2 0 10年我国粮食需求及粮食主产区占全国粮食产量比重进行测算,提出不同粮食自给率下国家粮食安全对粮食主产区粮食生产的目标要求。粮食主产区具有满足国家粮食安全产量需要的生产潜力。

The main food supply regions play a very important role in ensuring China's food safety. Their food production accounts for more than 70% of the total amount of China and 85% for all of the commodity grain. However, the Chinese grain sector faces pressure from both external competition and internal problems, for example, the process of urbanization and adjustment of agriculture structure engrossing much farmland, degradation of eco-environment, and so forth. Currently, China's agricultural structure adjustment is in progress. This promotes the development of China's agriculture and,on the other hand,leads to the decrease of food production. Under the analysis of the food supply and demand in the past several years, a conclusion is made.that China will be threatened by food supply in the coming few years, if the decreasing trend of food production can't be prevented. Further more, the paper predicts the amount of Chinese food demand from 2005 to 2010. Taking this forecast and the food-producing proportion of the main food supply regions on national scale into consideration, another forecast of the producing amount of the main food supply regions consistent with the demand of the state under different self-supplying rate is listed. In order to ensure China's food self-supplying rate above 97%, a series of measures which aim at improving the food-producing conditions of the main food supply regions and enhancing the grain yields there should be carried out.