云南雨季的旱涝分析及其预报初探

An Analysis of Drought and Waterlogging in Raing Searon of Yunnan and Exploration of Its Forecast

应用天气学方法对云南雨季发生的旱涝进行分析，指出大型环流调整异常，会导致某地区的降水异常，从而发生旱涝的现象，然后用数理统计，通过电子计算机逐步回归处理，建立具有一定实用意义的用于预报旱涝的雨量计算方程。

The thesis,by applying synophic meteorlolgy to an analysis of drought andwaterlogging in the raing season of Yunnan Province,observes that the abnormality in theadjustment of large-scale circulation would lead to an abuoimality of precipitation in a cer-tain region and thus causes drought and waterlogging.A practical calculating equation hasbeen established for its forecast through mathematical statistics and stepwise regression onthe computer.