基于GM(1,1)模型的铁路行车事故预测

Accident Prediction for Running Train Based on GM (1, 1) Model

铁路行车事故的发生具有偶然性 ,但可利用预测理论的方法加以预测。笔者简述了灰色理论中GM(1,1)预测模型的建模过程和精度检验的方法及步骤 ,在某铁路分局 1995～ 2 0 0 2年间的铁路行车事故统计的基础上 ,应用GM(1,1)预测模型预测了该铁路分局 2 0 0 4年的铁路行车事故发生趋势 ,经精度检验表明 ,模型的精度等级合格 ,其预测结果为铁路行车事故的防范和降低事故损失提供了指导和科学依据。

Though accidents are contingent in running trains, however, which could be predicted using prediction theory. The establishing process of GM (1, 1) prediction model in Grey Theory is described briefly. The model is practiced in accident prediction in a railway sub-bureau. The accuracy of the model has passed the qualification. The result of prediction is considered reliable. The model would be of some help to accident prediction for running train.