棉花生育时期及蕾铃发生发育模拟模型研究

A physiological development time-based simulation model for cotton development stages and square-and boll formation

通过定量分析南京、安阳、保定和石河子4个试验点2 0 0 2年不同播期3个品种(早熟品种中棉所36号、中早熟品种中棉所35号、中熟品种中棉所4 1号)的生育时期与环境因子之间的动态关系,建立了基于生理发育时间(DPT)的棉花生育期、果枝出现时间及其蕾铃发育阶段的模拟模型.模型的热效应计算考虑了不同棉区昼夜温较差对棉花发育速率的影响以及薄膜覆盖的增温效应,在模型中引入了果枝始节系数(IFIN)、日照时数因子(FSH)和果枝节位光照系数(IFBR) .利用不同年份、生态区、基因型的试验资料对模型进行了测试检验.结果表明,不同条件下模拟值与观测值的符合度较好.不同生育时期的模拟值与观测值的根均方差(RMSE)从播种到出苗、出苗到现蕾、开花到吐絮及播种到吐絮分别为0. 9、2 . 2、1 7和2 . 1d ,平均2. 1d ;棉株各果节点从现蕾到开花日期的模拟值与观测值的RMSE为1. 8～3. 7d ,从开花到吐絮日期的RMSE值为4. 6～5. 8d .

In this study,three cotton varieties (CRI 36,CRI 35 and CRI 41) were planted in Nanjing,Anyang,Baoding and Shihezi,respectively,in 2002,and the dynamic relationships between their development and environmental factors were analyzed. Based on this,a simulation model for cotton development stages and square-and boll development was built in terms of physiological development time (PDT). In calculating relative thermal effectiveness,the effect of diurnal temperature differences in different regions on cotton development was incorporated,and the enhancement of plastic mulching on air temperature was quantified. To simulate development stages,the initial fruiting node index (I_ FIN),sunlight duration factor (F_ SH),and solar radiation index on fruiting branch (I_ FBR) were introduced,besides earliness factor of a given genotype. The validation of the model with the data obtained from different years,ecological zones,genotypes,and cultivation practices indicated a high goodness of fitness between the simulated results and observed values. The root mean square error (RMSE) between simulated and observed days from sowing to emergence,emergence to squaring,anthesis to boll opening,and sowing to boll opening was 0.9,2.2,1.7,and 2.1 d,respectively,with a mean of 2.1 d,and in all plant sites,the RMSE between simulated and observed days from squaring to boll opening was 1.8～3.7 d,and that from squaring to opening was 4.6～5.8 d.