基于Matlab的疾病传播研究——SARS疫情的传播预测与控制

Research of Prediction and Control in SARS' Spreading

本文通过改进传统的疾病传播数学模型,在分析SARS传播特征的基础上,给出了详细描述SARS传播的数学模型。优化该模型后得到的数值解与实际数据基本吻合。通过数据的模拟,得到了“控制”对流行性疾病传播的重要性,以及具有指导意义的疫情控制措施。

Through proved 'SEIR'model and analyzed the characteristic of the SARS, this paper gives out a detailed mathematics model that conforms to describe the development of SARS' epidemic situation. When we modifiy this model, we find that the number solution of this modified model is fit for the actual data almost. According to experiment data, this paper also shows that the control is very important in treating SARS,and gives out the emulation conclusion with the leading meaning in different control measures.