德国经济的现状与未来

The Current State of German economy and its future

随着世界经济的强劲复苏 ,停滞多年的德国经济在 2 0 0 4年获得了温和增长 ,呈现出整体好转的迹象。然而 ,德国经济的此次复苏是不平衡的 ,出口和对外贸易顺差的强劲增长与国内经济的疲软形成鲜明对比。经济好转主要是得益于世界经济 ,特别是美国经济的良好发展 ;而私人消费和国内投资鲜有起色。从本质上讲 ,德国依然还是一个“靠世界经济输液”的病人 ;“德国病”不痊愈 ,德国经济就不可能重新腾飞。面对世界经济发展的颇多变数和德国国内深刻的结构危机 。

With the boom of the world economy, German economy has also come back to life after many years of recession. However, there is an obvious contrast between the trade surplus and weak domestic economy. The improvement of German economy this time benefits mainly from the international economic recovery, especially from the rapid economic development in the USA. But no remarkable change has taken place in terms of private consumption and domestic investment. Essentially Germany is still a patient depending on the 'transfusion of blood' of world economy. Without the cure of the 'German disease', German economy can never rejuvenate. In view of the uncertainties of world economy and the serious domestic structural crisis, the only way out for German economy lies in an all round reform of German social welfare system.