农业自然灾害威胁性的灰色局势决策

COUNTERMEASURE OF GREY SITUATION FOR THE THREAT OF AGRICULTURAL NATURAL DISASTER

本文以农业自然灾害及与之相关的机率、强度、对产值损害度、社会抗灾能力效果等因素，构造成灾害威胁局势，并引用灰色系统理论的最优局势概念和决策方法，对灾害威胁性的灰色局势作出排序决策。

In terms of agricultural natural disasters, occurrence opportunity, inten sity, damage degree of output value in agriculture, ability of the society to withstand natural calamities and factors that can form situation of disastrous threat, the author made an analysis on grey situational decision-making of countermeasures against agricul tural disasters and their threat by use of optimum situational conception of grey control system theory and methods of decision-making.