摘要本文在新古典随机增长模型的框架下,利用长期识别限制的结构性向量自回归模型识别和计量了具有持久效应的生产率冲击对我国经济波动的影响。我们发现,具有持久效应的生产率冲击不仅引起了我国实际G D P长期趋势的随机变化,而且导致了实际G D P偏离随机趋势的短期波动。不过,与暂时冲击比较起来,生产率冲击的波动效应并不具有实际上的重要性。
1Robert G. King, Charles I, Plosser, James H. Stock. ,and Mark W. Watson. Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations [J] .The American Economic Review, 1988, VOLS1 No4, 819-840.
2Solow, Robert M. Grows Theory: An Exposition [ M] .Exford: Clarendon Press. 1970.
3Im,K.S., Pesaran, M.H., and Y.Shin. Testing Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels [J] . Journal of Econometrics, 2003,115:53-74.
4Johansen, Soren. Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models[J]. Econometrica, 1991,59:1551-1580.
5Sims, C.A. Macroeconomics and Reality [J].Econometrica,1980, 48:1-48.
6Hsueh, T. T., and Li, Q. China' s National Income [M] .Boulder: Westview Press, 1999.
7Yah Wang and Yudong Yao. Sources of China' Economic Growth 1952-1999: Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation [J] .China Economic Review, 2003, 14 : 32-52.
8Charles R. Nelson and Charles 1, Plosser. Trends and Random Walks in Macro-economic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications [J] Journal of Monetary Economics, 1982,10:139-162.
9Robert G. King, Charles I. Plosser and Sergio T.,Rebelo.Production, Growths and Business Cycles: New Directions [J] .Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 21: 309-342.
