经济常态、经济波动与财政宏观调控

Economic normality, economic fluctuation and fiscal macro-regulation

目前学界对当前中国宏观经济形势的判断缺乏理论基础,用于指导政策实践令人担忧。连续和常态是研究宏观经济问题的理论前提和现实基础,而经济波动就是经济运行偏离常态,财政宏观调控的方向是使波动回落常态,由于当前经济处于比较接近常态的水平,因此财政政策就不应当再延续1998年开始的扩张性的政策,而应当逐渐退出。针对经济局部过热的情况和存在全面过热的趋势,应当采取“从紧”的财政政策。

Presently the theoretic foundation of the popular viewpoint about Chinese macroeconomic condition is unsubstantial. And it is discomforting for policy practice guiding by these viewpoints. We think that the continuity and normality are the theoretic premise and the economic fluctuation is that economy departs away from the normality. The strategy of the fiscal macro-regulation is making the fluctuation down to the normality. So the fiscal policy should be neutral and moderate.