新加坡贸易收支之谜的协整分析

Cointegration on the Puzzle of Singapore′s Trade Balance

采用非平稳时间序列的协整计量方法直接估算了新加坡汇率和贸易收支之间的关系 ,发现产生新加坡贸易收支之谜的原因在于 :新加坡有着较高的美国需求弹性和较低的国内需求弹性 ,从而使得新加坡货币在不断升值的情况下还可以保持贸易收支顺差 ,导致这一现象的深层原因是新加坡产业结构的转换和升级引起的出口商品结构的优化 .

This paper directly analyses the relationship between the exchange rate and trade balance of Singapore by cointegration used in the nonstationary time series. We found that the reasons of trade surplus during the appreciation of the exchange rate was the relatively high American′s demand elasticity and relatively low domestic demand elasticity in Singapore. The fundamental causation was the upgrade and transition of industry structure and optimization of merchandises exports′ structure in Singapore.