基于PDL模型的我国省域城市化水平预测研究——以甘肃省为例

Forecast of China's Regional Urbanization Process on the Basis of PDL Models ——Taking Gansu Province as an Example

以往的研究中,当实际应用经济因素相关分析法对城市化水平进行预测时,往往仅考虑了当期经济发展水平对城市化发展的影响,由此必然会因为遗漏掉重要信息而严重影响预测结果的可信性及其精度。本文以甘肃省为例,以计量经济学中的PDL(多项式分布滞后)模型为依据,尝试通过ARIMA模型及CPPS软件的运用对其2010年城市化水平做出预测。

In the previous researches, when the economic factor forecasting solution of urbanization was used into practice, the influence on urbanization produced by the level of present economic development always was regarded as the only factor to be considered. So the accuracy of the forecasting should be decreased seriously by ignoring some important effects. In this paper, taking Gansu province as an example, the authors tried to forecast the level of urbanization in Gansu province on the basis of the PDL (polynomial distributed lags) Models. At the same time, the ARIMA Models and CPPS software were also applied in the research.