经济增长与电信普遍服务的五阶段模式

Economy Growth and Five Stages of Telecom Universal Services

在引入米尔恩(Milne)提出的普遍服务五阶段模式的基础上,通过计量技术论证了我国的电信发展与经济增长存在着很强的正向关系,进而得出我国普遍服务发展的五阶段模式。从该模式可知,每个阶段的经济水平、电信水平、电信发展瓶颈都不太一样,所以我国普遍服务的目标、内容和实施措施都应该有所侧重。目前我国的普遍服务对象主要还是农村用户和中西部住宅用户,内容主要是固定电话服务,并不需要涵盖互联网接入服务,而有针对地进行补贴成为主要实施措施,而且这个阶段将会持续很长一段时间。

Introducing five-stage universal service raised by Milne, this paper analyzes the relationship between Chinese economy growth and telecom industry development and offers a framework of universal service policy at different times for China. The main results are that Chinese economy growth and telecom development has a strong and positive relationship. Moreover, there are also five stages of universal service policy for China. Each stage has different characters and difficulties, so the goals and policy of universal service should be different. Another conclusion is that recently the goal of Chinese universal service should be to raise teledensity in rural area and middle and western mainland. Internet access service need not be included in the universal service. Targeted subsidy is one of the effective measures to compensate the operators who provide universal service. And this stage will last for a long time.