消耗臭氧层物质对平流层臭氧的影响预测

Prediction on the influence of ozone depletion substance to the stratospheric ozone.

采用美国戈达德航天中心的雨云气象卫星臭氧全球网格资料,从中截取中国大陆主体部分(69.375°E^139.375°E、14.5°N^54.5°N)的数据,分析臭氧柱浓度变化的统计特性.结果表明,1979~1998年,大陆主体上空区域的臭氧柱浓度下降趋势明显,青藏高原上空的臭氧柱浓度下降速度较全国水平略快.假定其他缔约国均履行蒙特利尔议定书的前提下,以1980年臭氧柱浓度情形为基准,利用臭氧柱浓度与消耗臭氧层物质浓度之间的关系,预测了中国履行蒙特利尔议定书与不履行两种情形下,2001~2050年中国上空臭氧柱浓度变化情况.结果表明,中国履约受控情形下,2050年大陆主体部分上空的臭氧柱浓度将与其1980年的水平相近;不受控情形下,柱浓度将持续下降,2050年整个大陆主体上空绝大部分地区臭氧柱浓度值均低于240DU.

The statistical characteristics of the variation of the concentration of ozone column, intercepting and capturing the data of main part of mainland (69.375°E-139.375°E, 14.5°N-54.5°N) of China from TOMs data were analyzed. From the years 1979 to 1998, the concentration of ozone column over mainland of China tended to decrease markedly, while that the decreasing rate over Tibet-Qinghai Plateau fell more rapidly than the notional level. The variation state of ozone column concentration over China from the years 2001-2050 was forecasted under two conditions of complying with the Montreal Protocol or not. Supposing that other countries complied with the Montreal Protocol using the state of ozone column concentration in 1980 as standard and utilizing the predicted concentration of ozone depletion substance under controlling condition, the ozone column concentrations over the main part of mainland in the years 2050 and 1980 were similar; under no control condition, the concentration decreased continually. In year 2050, the concentration value in most regions of the antler mainland was below 240DU.