摘要
以１９８２至１９８６年我国海洋捕捞、海水养殖水产品产量的统计数据为基础，通过分别建立海捕和海养产量的ＧＭ（１、１）模型，对我国海洋渔业产量作出了近期预测。预计海洋捕捞产量１９９５年将达到７７５．１４万吨，２０００年达１１４３．７３万吨；海水养殖产量１９９５年将达３２２．１９万吨，２０００年达６７７．１７万吨。并通过对海洋渔业的现状、问题及预测结果的分析，提出了促进海洋渔业产量增长的措施和方法，为渔业生产部门制订投资决策和合理安排生产提供科学依据。
Production of Marine Fisheries is forecasted by making GM(1, 1) model based on statistical data of production of marine take and culture in seawater in this paper.It is estamit6d that production of marine take will be 7751.4 thousand ton in 1995、11 437. 3 thousand ton in 2000,and the production of culture in eeawater will be 3221.9 thousands ton in 1995、6771.7thousand ton in 2000. By analysesing the status quo, pro blems and forecasting rezult, measures to increase production are proposed
关键词
海洋捕捞
海水养殖
产量
预测
Marine take
Culture in seawater
Aquatic production
GM (1, 1) model forecast
