摘要
针对管道腐蚀诸多因素的复杂性和不确定性以及管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测的困难性,系统地阐述了在役管道的腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法。评述了灰色预测方法,概率统计方法,人工神经网络方法和可靠度函数分析四种国内外正在研究和使用的方法。这些方法对于管道操作者做出正确的管道检测、维修以及更换决策起到了重要的指导作用。
In view of the complexity and uncertainty of the factors contributing to pipe corrosion and the difficulty of predicting the remaining life of corroded pipe, a systematic discussion is made of the methods for predicting the remaining life of in-service corroded pipe. A review is made of the four methods being studied and used in China and other countries: gray prediction, probabilistic statistics, artificial nerve network, and functional analysis of reliability. These methods have played an important guiding role for pipe operators so that they can make correct decisions on the repair, maintenance, and replacement of pipes.
出处
《石油工业技术监督》
2005年第4期18-20,共3页
Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry
