基于计量经济学模型的汽车保有量预测

Forecast of Vehicle Population Based on Model of Econometrics

汽车保有量与社会经济的发展有着密切关系,通过建立计量经济学模型寻求汽车保有量和社会经济有关指标的函数关系,可以较为准确地预测一个地区短期内的汽车保有量.本文根据广东省的统计数据,给出建立计量经济学预测模型和进行各项检验的详细过程,并根据模型预测了广东省2 0 0 4年和2 0 0 5年的汽车保有量.

There is a close relationship between vehicle population and development of society and economy. By established a model of econometrics and the paper sets up the relation of function of vehicle population and development of society and economy, comparatively forecast vehicle population of some region in a short time. Based on the statistic data of Guangdong, this paper introduces the concrete process of setting up econometrics model and forcasting the vehicle population of Guangdong province in 2004 and 2005.