摘要
把自回归模型用于月径流过程概率预报中。首先根据历史径流的概率分布利用自回归模型预报出一个概率,再根据这个预报出的概率进行径流概率预报。并把这种方法用于三峡电站的入库径流预报中,取得了较好的效果。
The autoregressive model is applied to the monthly runoff probability forecast. At first, a probability based on the probability distribution of the historical runoff process is forecasted by the application of the autoregressive model. And then the probability forecast of runoff process is performed according to the forecasted probability. The method is used for the runoff forecast of the Three Gorges Station, and the result is satisfactory.
出处
《水电自动化与大坝监测》
2005年第2期74-76,共3页
HYDROPOWER AUTOMATION AND DAM MONITORING
关键词
自回归模型
概率预报
三峡电站
autoregressive model
probability forecast
Three Gorges Station
