肾综合征出血热与气象因子相关性分析及其预报研究

The Correlation Analysis Between Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(HFRS) and Meteorological Factors and Forcast of HFRS

目的根据连云港赣榆县1990～2002年的气象资料及肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的发病情况,探讨气象因子对HFRS高发区发病率的影响及其相关性,并建立基于气象因子的HFRS发生的预测预报模型。方法用数据处理软件SAS的相关性分析工具和多重线性回归模型。结果以湿度(x1)、日照(x2)、降水(x3)、平均温度(x4)和最低气温(x6)等气象因子为自变量,HFRS发病率为因变量,采用强迫引入法和逐步回归法,分别建立回归方程,y=8.766+0.148x1+0.015x2-0.028x3-0.567x4(①),复相关系数(r)=0.45及y=1.742-0.054x6(②),复相关系数(r)=0.44,经t检验,呈显著相关。结论方程②可作为HFRS的预测预报模型,同时进行了区间估计,证实可行。

Objective The paper analyzes the correlation between HFRS and meteorological factors, and establishes the regression model of incidence of HFRS, based on the incidence of HFRS and the meteorological data in Ganyu county, Lianyungang from 1990 to 2002. Methods Utilizing the correlation analysis and multiple regression model of SAS software. Results According to enter and stepwise regression methods, humidity(x_1), sunlight(x_2), precipitation(x_3), average temperature(x_4) and lowest temperature(x_6) on independent variables, incidence of disease of HFRS on dependent variable, regression equations were established, ~y= ~8.766+ ~0.148x_1+ ~0.015x_2- ~0.028x_3- ~0.567x_4 (①), multiple r is ~0.45 , and ~y= ~1.742- ~0.054x_6 (②), multiple r is ~0.44 . At the same time. Significant test indicates the correlation is significant. Conclusion Equation ② can be become the forcast model of HFRS, and interval estimate was utilized to test the model in this paper and feasibility was suggested simultaneously.