中国金融发展与经济效率的实证分析：1978～2002

An Empirical Analysis of Financial Development and Economic Efficiency: China from 1978 to 2002

本文采用中国27个省、直辖市和自治区1978～2002年的年度面板数据,运用混合回归的计量方法,对中国金融系统促进经济增长的作用渠道进行了实证研究.研究结果表明,中国的金融系统对经济增长的促进作用是通过投资总量途径而不是效率途径来实现的,对经济增长的推动付出了经济效率上的代价.为此,必须转变金融发展路径,加快金融变革,实现经济与金融的二元均衡.

By making use of the annual panel data of 27 districts (provincial level) in China and the method of pooled regression, this paper conducts an empirical analysis into the operational channel of the financial system that promotes economic growth in China. It is found that in China, the promotion to economic growth by the financial system is realized through the channel of propelling investment aggregate rather than the efficiency channel. In other words, the economic growth is realized at the cost of economic efficiency. For this reason, we have to change the ways of financial development and quicken up financial reformation to realize the dual balance between economy and finance.