水文变异综合诊断方法及其应用研究

Comprehensive Diagnosis Method of Hydrologic Time Series Change-point Analysis

提出了一种水文时间变异综合诊断方法。首先采用Hurst系数等方法对序列进行初步检验,判断序列是否存在变异;然后用多种检验方法对序列进行详细诊断,得到多种检验结果;最后对检验结果评分,计算综合权重,找出权重最大的点,并结合实际水文调查分析对该点进行确认,从而得到最可能变异点。该方法已应用于潮白河45a径流量变异分析中,解决了单一检验方法检验结果不合理、多种检验方法检验结果不一致的问题。

In the case of using the statistical method to check out change-point , the result may be unlikely and inconsistent with the hydrological investigated results. In the case of using various methods to analyze, the results are inconsistent. A comprehensive diagnosis method is presented in this paper after studying and summarizing various change-point analysis methods in common use. The method checks out the change-point by analyzing the result of single change-point analysis method. A weight is assigned to every probable change-point. The most probable change-point is the one which has the biggest weight. At the same time ,the method considers the hydrological investigated results. The method is successfully used to analyze Chaobaihe river's 45 years annual run-off time series. It solved the problem of inconsequence of single analysis method and inconsistency of various analysis methods.