华南地区和广西自治区地震活动周期性变化特征和未来趋势预测

Analysis on the Periodicity of Earthquake Activity and Earthquake Tendency in South China and Guangxi Autonomous Region

应用基于Morlet小波变换的一种新的定量划分地震活跃期或平静期的分析方法,研究了华南和广西地区1900～2003年间浅源地震年释放能量的时间序列,对研究区中强地震活动的周期性特征有了新的认识。研究发现,华南地区的地震具有17a,3a和8a三个活动主周期,广西地区的地震具有29a,11a和16a三个活动主周期。根据目前中强震活动具有的周期性,结合历史地震活动情况,对研究区未来几年的地震活动趋势进行了预测。

According to the Morlet complex wavelet transformation,a kind of new method that is used for distinguishing earthquake active period and quiet period,we studied the time serial of earthquake accumulation energy per year from 1900 to 2003 in South China and Guangxi,and got some new knowledge about the periodicity of shallow earthquake activity. The result shows that there are three main periods, 17 years, 3 years and 8 years, in South China, and three main periods, 29 years, 11 years and 16 years, in Guangxi. Combining with the history earthquakes and the period characteristic of present earthquake activity, we discussed the earthquake tendency in following years in studied areas.