滑坡预报的多项式回归分析模型

The multinomial regression analysis method for landslide prediction

在回顾了滑坡预报的概念、类型及已有滑坡预报的几种主要模型的基础上,利用多元回归分析方法,根据最小二乘法原理,建立了多项式回归预报模型,提出滑坡破坏的时间为位移———时间曲线的拐点,此方法一般适合于临滑预报。根据实例,利用某滑坡位移———时间监测资料,采用该模型进行滑坡时间预报,结果理想,说明该模型具有一定的合理性、实用性。

Based on the conception,types and several main methods of the landslide prediction , the method of multivariate regression analysis and the principle of least square-procedure are introduced to build a predicting model of multinomial regression. The point of inflexion on a displacement-time curve is regarded as the slipping time. This method is fit for the prediction of critical slippage. According to an example and the monitoring displacement-time data of a landslide, the model is used to predict the time of its slippage. And the result is close to the realities. Thus it indicates that it is suitable for the landslide prediction to a certain extent.