东亚国家经济内生成长模型的实证研究

Research on inner-growth of economic development of east-Asia countries

以时间序列分析方法探讨内生成长模型理论,试图对东亚国家经济体系长期的经济成长效果进行实证研究。实证结果发现:从东亚国家成长率的时间序列分析检验结果看来,基本没有一个国家有如内生成长理论所强调的有恒久性变动现象,甚至可以说没有;另外在实质资本投资率方面,其时间序列分析结果,除了缅甸以外,其它11个国家在实质资本投资率上,皆呈现统计上显著增长。结果表明AK-style模型对于东亚快速发展地区背后长期经济成长的力量来源无法提供良好的预测。

This paper discusses the inner-growth theoryby time series analysis, and explains the economic development of East-Asia countries. The result of our analysis is that none country has the unvarying, and 11 of 12 countries has remarkable economic increase of invest return. We conclude that AK-style model can not explain the power of economic evolution.