小麦黄矮病预测预报

FORECAST OF WHEAT YELLOW DWARF DISEASE

利用1973—1988年共16年的资料,选定13种因素,通过相关性测定,确定黄矮病的主要流行因素为:降水量、平均气温、冬季极端低温、越冬蚜量与蚜株率、早春蚜量与蚜茎率。用多元回归法和判别分析法建立了小麦黄矮病预测式4个,经验证有较好效果。通过分析还提出了小麦黄矮病的规范化调查方法。

Based on investigation data of 16 years from 1973- 1988,13 factors were correlatively analysed to identify the major ones relating to epidemiology of wheat yellow dwarf disease. They were precipitation, mean temperature, overwintering aphids population and incidence on plants, winter lowest temperature, aphids population and incidence on plants in early spring. Through multiple regression analysis and discriminant analysis, 4 predicting formulates were built and available for practical. A standardized method for field investigation of the disease also discussed.