一种经济模型的计算机模拟与分析

Simulation and analysis of an economic model

国会山保姆公司模型是在经济学界广为引用的一个经济模型,但是迄今为止的研究都是定性的论述,没有定量的研究.中国人民大学经济科学实验室在复杂适应系统(CAS)理论的基础上,选用Swarm平台对该模型进行了计算机模拟和定量分析,结果表明,市场成员预期行为的方式对于市场的演变状况具有直接的影响,在一定的条件下,甚至可以造成市场的崩溃.而且造成这种影响的数量界限,也可以通过计算机模拟进行估计和预测.论文介绍了这一研究工作的思路和主要结论.

The Model for the Great Capital Hills babysitter Company is a wide referenced economic model in economics. However, up to now, all of research is qualitative, there is no quantitative research report. Based on so_called CAS (complex adaptive system) theory, the Economic Science Lab of Renmin University of China has formed a computer simulation model for this model using platform Swarm, and based on the results some quantitative analysis has been performed. Our research proves that the forecasting behavior of market members can influence the evolvement process of the market directly, sometime this can cause crash of the market. Using computer simulation, the concrete quantitative bourn for these phenomena can be estimated.