国际资本流动、经济扭曲与宏观稳定——当前经济增长态势分析

International Capital Flows, Economic Distortions and Macroeconomic Stability——The Trend Analysis of Current Economic Growth

本文针对当前中国所面临的资本流动新格局(即大量非FDI流入) ,分析了国际资本流动引起宏观不稳定的机制,以及通过对冲与资本管制方式应对资本流动冲击的局限。论文的核心是引入经济扭曲概念,建立了带扭曲因素的资本流动与宏观稳定模型,强调扭曲的存在会使波动加剧。因此,为应对资本流动新格局,政策当局需要尽快完善非FDI监控体系、矫正各种经济扭曲。

Regarding the new pattern of capital flows (i.e., large Non-FDI inflows) to China, the paper analyses the mechanism through which international capital movements are translated into macroeconomic instability and the limitations of police responses such as sterilization and capital control. The key of the paper is to introduce economic distortions, and set up the model of capital flows and macroeconomic stability with distortion factor as well as claim that the distortions would reinforce the volatility resulting from the capital flows. Therefore, in order to manage the new pattern of capital flows, policy authorities should improve the supervisory system on Non-FDI, adjust the economic distortions and bring the transition from ‘quantities’ to ‘prices’ macro-regulation.