稳态通货膨胀下经济增长率的估计

Estimation of the Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth

本文从产品市场价格变动出发,解释了经济增长影响通货膨胀的原因,并讨论了稳定通货膨胀的经济增长率的概念。同时,利用季度数据从实证的角度分析了过去1 4年中国经济增长与通货膨胀之间的变动情况,估计出2 0世纪90年代以来中国“稳定通货膨胀的经济增长率”(SIRG ,SteadyInflationRateofEconomicGrowth)大致维持在9.

Many Economists tend to believe that inflation will increase (or decrease) if growth is higher (or lower) than the “potential' growth rate of the economy. The traditional wisdom of explaining these phenomena is to use the “Phillips Curve' which emphasizes the labor market condition. Contrast to the traditional method, this study investigates the relationship between inflation and growth focusing on goods market directly. We set up a simple theoretical model and estimate equations relating the change in inflation to growth rates of economy. Our result suggests that the “steady inflation rates of economic growth' is 9.8% about in China.