中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析

Grey Associative Analysis of Regional Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupling in China

以定性与定量分析相结合的方法建立了耦合系统的评价指标体系,运用灰色关联分析法构建出区域城市化与生态环境交互作用的关联度模型和耦合度模型,定量揭示出中国省区城市化与生态环境系统耦合的主要因素,并从时空角度分析了区域耦合度的空间分布及演变规律。研究结果表明:(1)城市化与生态环境系统要素之间的耦合是复杂的,总体上表现在城市化对生态环境的胁迫作用和生态环境对城市化的约束作用两个方面。通过关联度计算遴选出作用于生态环境的16项城市化指标和影响城市化的10项生态环境指标,它们较为全面反映出系统交互耦合的机理;(2)中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合度分布基本符合东、中西空间分异的规律。根据耦合度大小并结合区域城市化与经济发展阶段,大致将全国省区划分为协调、磨合、拮抗和低水平耦合等4种类型,其中以拮抗类型为主;(3)中国城市化与生态环境耦合度的时序变动表现出明显的阶段性和波动性。

Based on the panel and serial statistical data, the main factors of regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling, temporal-spatial distribution of the coupling degrees have been researched. The results show: 1) Through grey associative degree analysis, it can be seen that the urban population transfer, economic growth, social service function and level are the main momentums for urbanization to affect eco-environment. Furthermore, the paper selects 16 items of urbanization and 10 items of eco-environment to reveal the coupling mechanism of regional urbanization and eco-environment. 2) The distribution of the coupling degrees basically conforms to the discrepant rule that the coupling degrees are lower in the eastern belt and the western belt, and higher in the middle with an inverse 'U' shape. According to the coupling degree distributions and the stages of regional urbanization and economic development, the 31 provinces can be divided into four types, i.e., that are harmony, amelioration, confliction and low-level coupling, but the conflictive type is dominant, reaching 50%. 3) There exist significant phases and undulatory characteristics for the temporal evolvement of urbanization and eco-environment coupling, in which the former stage takes on inverse 'U' shape and the latter stage rising curve shape.