事故与熵──事故发生可能性计算的新方法

ACCIDENTS AND ENTROPY:A NEW FRAMEWORK FORMEASURING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ACCIDENTS

从熵增加的观点描述了事故的本质，剖析了人机系统的实质与特性，提出了风险熵与事故势的概念，给出了计算机风险熵与事故势的方法。结果表明，系统具有二重性。在系统运行期间，系统具有封闭体系的特性；在休整期间，系统具有开放体系的特性。事故是运行系统的必然发展趋势，是运行系统的固有属性，是一种自发过程。由于在系统熵增加的过程中信息及能量的交换，可以把事故定义为系统熵增加的结果。避免事故发生的原理是不断地向系统输入信息或负熵以抵消系统内部的熵增加。

The nature of the man machine systems and accidents is described from an view of entropy increasement, and the risk entropy and the potential accident are proposed in the paper. The result shows that the system has two characteristics:the properties of an open system in leisure time, and the properties of an isolate system in working time. The accident ofa system is inevitable trend. In other word, it is a spontaneous process and an instinct character of the systems in operation. An accident can be defined as the result of the increase ofentropy of the system, since the exchange of the information and energy happened in the process if the increasement of entropy. The principle of avoiding an accident is to input information or negative entropy in order to decrease the increasement of entropy in the inner system.