地震序列较强余震灰色及最小二乘拟合预测方法的应用研究

The application study of the predict method of the gray and the method of least square in the earthquake array strong aftershock

在收集、整理1966年～2002年8月我国(主要为大陆地区)183个5级以上地震序列资料的基础上,应用灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法,对每一地震序列较强(显著)余震发震时间进行"硬性"检验预测。结果表明,2种预测方法对7级以上地震序列和6级地震序列的较强(显著)余震具有较好的预测效能,预测效能分别为76.2%和64.7%;而对5级地震序列预测效果则不甚明显。因此,灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法主要着眼于对大(强)地震的较强(显著)余震预测,可望在地震现场大(强)震应急工作中发挥积极作用。

Collect, put our country (mainly the continent area) from 1966 to August of 2002 in order on the foundations of 183 M≥5 earthquake array materials, use gray predict and method of least square fit predict to examine and predict rigidly stronger aftershock when to take place of every earthquake array. The result indicates , two kinds of prediction methods have better prediction efficiency to stronger (remarkable) aftershock of M≥7 earthquake array and 6 magnitude of earthquake array, predict efficiency is 76.2% and 64.7% respectively; Predict to 5 magnitude of earthquake array the result is not very obvious. So gray predict and the method of least square focus on the heavy earthquake stronger aftershock predict mainly, expect to play a positive role in an urgent need work after stronger (remarkable) earthquake in scene.