我国经济增长趋势与经济周期波动性之间的作用机制检验

An Examination-in System-of the Interaction between China's Economic Growth Trend and Business Fluctuation

本文利用均值—条件异方差模型检验了我国产出增长率中的条件波动性(条件标准差)与经济增长速度之间的关系,并且利用结构VAR模型的冲击反应函数描述了增长率波动性和经济增长率水平之间交互影响的动态传导路径。检验结果表明,我国的经济波动性对经济增长水平具有正向的"溢出效应",体现出经济周期波动性与经济增长趋势之间的正相关性。由此说明,我国的金融发展程度和市场发展规模,以及宏观经济政策调控都具有一定程度的顺周期性质,特别是经济处于回升时期的经济政策方向与经济周期的扩张方向基本一致。我国经济周期波动性与经济增长趋势之间的正相关性预示着我国新出现的经济波动将是一轮上升型经济波动,未来一段时期的经济增长速度将在9%以上的水平上稳定地徘徊。

By means of the model of 'typical value-conditional heteroscedasticity',we have in this article examined the relationship between the conditional fluctuation (conditional standard deviation) in China's output growth rate and China's economic growth;and by the function of impact response in the structure VAR model,described the dynamic conducting channel of the interaction between the fluctuation of growth rate and the economic growth level. The outcome of this examination demonstrates that China's economic fluctuation has a positive 'overflow effect'on economic growth level,which gives expression to the direct correlation between the economic cyclic fluctuation and economic growth trend. Therefore, it can be inferred that the degree of China's financial growth, the scale of market development and the control by the macroeconomic policies, they all possess, to some extent, the nature of following the same direction as that of economic cycles; the direction of economic policies is basically the same as that of the expansion of economic cycles, especially when the economy is in the state of being picking up. The direct correlation between China's economic cyclical swing and economic growth tendency indicates that the economic fluctuation that has recently appeared in China will be that of a rising type, and that the economic growth rate will, for a period of time, be steadily fluctuating at more than 9%.