透过电力看经济——宏观调控重要性研究

Significance of Macro-Economic Regulation from Reviewing on Power Sector

电力与经济发展密切相关。电力弹性系数反映了电力增长速度与国民经济增长速度的相对数量关系。电力弹性系数的数值大小及其变化隐含了许多相对数量关系, 对应了许多不同的电力及经济发展状况。电力数据可以实时准确地反映经济发展的某些特征。尽管电力只是经济系统的一部分, 但是它的变化可以起到警示作用, 引起我们的重视。对此, 本文引入定理———电力弹性系数小于1, 经济系统才能高效运转。因此, 我们可以透过电力视窗, 通过电力弹性系数本身的数值变化来分析经济发展中的优势及隐形问题, 通过宏观调控、政策引导, 达到经济可持续发展的目标。

China has got great achievement on her economic development in the last two decades. The growth of GDP was 9.3% in 2003. Last year, the electricity consumption was increased 15.27% . Electric power elastic is the rate of GDP growth over electric consumption growth. It is also shown the relationship between economic and power development. Since the data in power sector is accurate and available in time, it is important to mine the data and get more information to show the state of economic system and give the warning if there is in the system. In this paper, a theorem has been proved that the economic system is efficient if and only if the electric elastic is lower than 1. It is shown that our economic system was, is and will be in lower efficiency in recent years. It has been realized by the government and the measures have been implemented to control the unstable growth in some sectors. The data from power sector show that the results of the measures are good. It will play an important role in sustainable development of economic system. It is suggested to take the measures on monetary and fiscal policies for the market economy in China.