论中国现代化建设的战略选择

Strategy of China's modernization drive

以21世纪科技和经济发展的趋势为背景,研究提出新经济观、新科学观、新农业观和新现代化,主要论断有:(1)人类社会将遵循着由农业经济到工业经济(工业化)到知识经济(知识化)再回归新农业经济(农业化)的发展方向;阐述了导致回归新农业经济(农业化)的内涵及其依据。(2)信息经济与生物经济都是以知识和技术为最重要生产要素,又处在交叉发展,可以同属于知识经济。进而将知识经济划分为两个阶段:前知识经济,以信息经济为主;后知识经济,以生物经济为主;并论述了生物经济终将占主导地位。(3)农业可以致富、农业可以跨越、农业可以主导的新农业观;指出农业的贡献不可低估、农业的功能不可少估、农业的潜力不可小估。(4)在上述论断的基础上研究提出中国现代化建设的新战略,即:以农业为主导,促进工业经济与知识经济(包括信息经济和生物经济)的协调发展,并逐步过渡到新农业经济;讨论了选择新战略的必然性以及相关的理论和实践问题。

Taking the trend of scientific, technological and economic development in the 21st century as the background, the new strategy of China's modernization drive is expounded in terms of new economy view, new science view, new agriculture view and new modernization. Several conclusions are as follows. (1) Development of human society takes the way from agricultural economy via industrial economy (industrialization) to knowledge economy(intellectualization) and then returns to new agricultural economy. The intension and basis leading to the returning to the new agricultural economy are dealt with. (2) Information economy and biological economy take knowledge and technology as their most important essential factors of production, and are at the intersecting development stage, so they both belong to knowledge economy which can be further divided into two stages, pre-knowledge-economy characterized by information economy and post-knowledge-economy characterized by biological economy. It is concluded that biological economy will take the dominant position at last. (3) New agriculture view means that agriculture is able to make a fortune, dominate and bring about a leap forward development, so its contribution, role and potential must not be underestimated. (4) Based on the above conclusions, the new strategy of China's modernization drive is proposed. That is to take agriculture as the leading and promote the coordinated development of industrial economy and knowledge economy (including information economy and biological economy), and then gradually transit to new agricultural economy. The inevitability of adopting the new strategy and the concerned theoretical and practical issues are also discussed.