基本气象要素综合预报业务系统

Operational composite forecast system with basicmeteorological elements

使用中期数值预报产品和实况资料,充分利用现代计算机的快速计算能力,采用动态相似、最优相似等综合预报方法和经改进的传统预报方法以及综合集成预报方法,逐日滚动制作0～1 68h多测站温度、降水等基本气象要素预报。经2 0 0 2年7月～2 0 0 3年6月业务运行表明:系统运行稳定,动态综合预报等新方法预报效果明显优于PP等传统方法,对具有不同预报思路的6种预报结果进行综合集成后,预报精度明显提高。

By the elaborate organization of the productions of medium-range numerical weather prediction and actual observing data, and considering the development of modern high speed computers, this paper employed the composite forecast techniques which include dynamic similarity and the optimal similarity, the improved traditional forecasting and the resultant ensemble prediction method to produce the cyclical forecast of basic weather elements, such as temperature,precipitation etc,at multi-stations during 0～168 hours each day. From July 2002 to June 2003,the operational practice showed that this system ran stably,the forecast results of these new methods,such as dynamic composite forecast technique etc,were obviously superior to that of the traditional methods like PP etc,and the precision of prediction was improved greatly by the resultant ensemble of six kinds of forecast results obtained by use of the different methods.