突发事件应急管理中的动态博弈分析

Dynamic Game Analysis of Emergency Management

突发事件应急管理的一个重要特征和主要难点在于突发事件的管理者必须根据阶段性的处置结果和突发事件的发展趋势动态地调整管理活动;本文在动态博弈模型的框架下分析了突发事件应急管理中“危机事件”与“危机管理者”之间的动态博弈过程,并探讨了如何利用博弈模型生成预案。

An important characteristic and main difficulty of emergency management lies in the fact that the controller of an emergency must adjust his strategies dynamically according to the results from previous activities and the developing trend of the emergency. This paper analyzes the dynamic game between the 'emergency controller' and the 'emergency' within the framework of dynamic game model, and discusses how to form a precautionary plan through the game model.