地震活动性参数b，η，c在中短期地震预报中的综合应用

Synthetic Application of Seismicity Parameters b, η, c in Medium and Short-Term Earthquake Prediction

本文把模糊模式识别的直接方法应用于以地震活动性参数ｂ，η，ｃ为基础的中短期地震预报，并以华北和松潘两地区为例，建立了一年期和半年期的模糊预报模式ＦＰ１和ＦＰ（０．５）。对华北地区Ｍ≥５．８和松潘地区Ｍ≥５．４地震的内符检验（１９７—１９８８）和外推预报检验（１９８９－１９９１）结果表明，一年期和半年期的内检及外推预报检验符合率可分别达到８８％和６２％以上。

The direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition has been applied to the medium and short-term earthquake prediction based on the seismicity parameters b, η, c. In illustration of the method, the patterns of one-year period and half-year period fuzzy predictions FP1and FP(0.5) were established for both North China and the Songpan region. The interior prediction checks (1970-1988) and exterior prediction tests (1989-1991) of the earthquakes of M≥5. 8 in North China and earthquakes of M≥5. 4 in Songpan region were made. The results obtained show that the degrees of coincidence of one-year and half-year interior prediction checks and exterior prediction tests with actual cases may achieve above 88% and 60% for the North China and the Songpan region separately.