时序负荷曲线下电力系统概率性生产模拟

The Probabilistic Power System Production Simulation Based on Chronological Load Curve

通过可用容量概率密度分布函数曲线与时序负荷曲线相结合，本文提出了一种基于时序负荷曲线的电力系统概论性生产模拟的新方法，它克服了传统方法不能考虑与时间相关的约束条件的弱点，并为加速水电优化和互联电力系统生产模拟提供了新路。应用情况表明：本文提出的方法对评估我国电网的电源结构有着十分重要的意义。

A new model and the relevant algorithm for probebilistic power system production simulation bssed on chronological load curve are presented.The model is based on the combination of Available Capacity Probability Density Function (ACPDF)and chrono logical load curve,so that the chronological constaints can be easily taken into account,and the calculation of hydro system optimizing can be done more effectively.In out algorithm,all thermal unit are loaded on by one in merit order and the expected energy of each unit is the increament of system generating capacity affer putting it into system. During calculating,only ACPDF needs convolution and deconvolution whereas the load curve keeps constant,thus,the numerical stability of the algorithm is better than that of Others.The model and algorithm have been applied into IEEE-RTS and Northeast China power system and the satisfactory results have been achieved.