石家庄市农业系统的经济结构及其模拟

The economic structure and simulation of agricultural system in Shijiazhuang city

石家庄市2002年人均农村社会总产值为2 04万元,农民人均纯收入3245元。在GDP中,第一产业占13 1%,第二产业占47 2%,第三产业占39 7%。在农业总产值中,农业占55 1%,林业占1 3%,牧业占42 4%,渔业占1 2%。该市农业系统各要素的发展趋势均可应用回归分析、双向差分曲线等简单模型或其组合模型以及复相关方程来拟合与预测。据分析,该市粮食总产2002～2010年年增长率可达1 8%。表1,参11。

The per capita social total output value in rural area was 2.04×10~4 Yuan and the per capita net income of rural households was (3 245) Yuan in Shijiazhuang city in 2002.The ratio between industry structure and GDP was 13.1% for the primary industry,47.2% for the secondary industry,and 39.7% for the tertiary industry.The ratio between agriculture structure and gross output value of farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery was 55.1% for farming,1.3% for forestry,42.4% for animal husbandry,and 1.2% for fishery.The development tendencies of the elements of the agricultural system in the city can be simulated and forecasted by the simple model including the regression analysis,the bilateral difference curve and so on or the combinatorial model or the compound correlative equation.According to the estimation,the annual increasing rate of grain total yield will be 1.8% in the city in 2010.