重庆市不同经济区耕地动态变化及其驱动力差异性分析

Different Analysis on Dynamic Change of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces in Different Economic Regions of Chongqing

根据1985 2 0 0 0年耕地统计和社会经济资料,对重庆经济较发达的北碚区、欠发达的万州区和经济落后的酉阳县三不同经济区的耕地动态变化进行了统计分析。结果表明,三不同经济区的耕地变化无论在数量上还是结构比等方面均有明显下降,且经济较发达的北碚区相对经济欠发达的万州区和经济发展落后的酉阳县而言耕地数量减少、结构比下降的速度(率)更快。通过主成分分析法和多元线性回归分析表明,人口的增长、工业化和城镇化的进程、第三产业的发展、社会经济管理机制以及社会行为等这些影响耕地变化的主要社会驱动力因子,对不同经济区耕地变化的影响存在着一定的差异性。利用灰色动态预测模型GM(1,1)对不同经济区未来10年耕地变化预测表明,不同经济区耕地变化将会继续减少,且经济较发达的北碚区和经济欠发达的万州区耕地减少的速度(率)基本保持一致。

Based on cultivated land statistic datum and social-economic materials between 1985 and 2000, this paper analyzes dynamic Change of cultivated land in three different economic regions of Chongqing, which are developed Beibei, less developed Wanzhou and backward Youyang. It is revealed that there are great difference in quantity and structure of cultivated land in these regions over 15 years. Beibei, which is more developed than Wanzhou and Youyang, rapidly reduced in cultivated land quantity and structure rate. Based on Principal Component Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression, it can be concluded that main driving forces in these regions affecting on cultivated land change are population growth, industrialization and urbanization, development of the third industry, mechanism of economic management, social conduct etc. Furthermore, their effects on cultivated land are diverse to some degree in different economic regions. Taking use of Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1), it is predicted that cultivated land would continue to decrease and that cultivated land reduction rate of Beibei and Wanzhou would be steady, while the reduction rate of Youyang would be more rapid than before in the next ten year.