灰色模型在西安住宅市场预测中的应用及市场分析

Application of Grey Model on the Prediction of Residential Sales of Xi’an City

在简要介绍灰色模型尤其是GM(1,1)模型的同时,利用西安市1999～2003年的住宅销售总量数据,建立了西安住宅销售总量预测模型.经模型检验,该模型合格.利用该模型对2004～2007年西安住宅销售总量进行了预测.最后在预测的基础上,对开发商及政府管理提出了几点建议.

This paper briefly introduces the gray prediction model, especially GM (1, 1) model, at the same time,establishes residential sales model based on the data of residential sales of Xi’an city. Being tested, the model reaches qualified grade. Meanwhile,the prediction for the years from 2004 to 2007 is made.At the end, the paper analyzes the problems exiting in present residential sales-market of Xi’an city and provides some methods to solve these problems.