黑河绿洲可持续发展水平诊断与实力评估

Evaluation and diagnosis of sustainable development level in the oases of Heihe

本文通过因子分析方法确定出黑河绿洲可持续发展水平的诊断因子,并对其进行实力评估。经济影响因子(F1)、社会影响因子(F2)和资源影响因子(F3)在主成分中累计贡献率最大,为黑河绿洲可持续发展水平的三个主要诊断因子,其中以经济和社会影响因子的贡献率最高,为可持续发展的首要因子。资源影响因子为可持续发展的支持因子,反映可持续发展的潜力。黑河绿洲可持续发展水平的综合实力评估空间上表现出中间高,两头低的特点。而结合F3影响因子分析,黑河绿洲可持续发展水平的潜力在空间上则表现为从上游到下游递减趋势。最后基于实力评估提出绿洲可持续发展的主要对策。

The diagnosis factor of the sustainable development level in the Heihe oasis is determined by the factor analysis method in this paper. The accumulative contribution rate of economic influence factor (F_1), social influence factor (F_2) and the resources influence factor(F_3)is bigger in the principal components, and they are three major diagnosis factors of the sustainable development level for the Heihe oasis. The contribution rate of economic social influence factor is the highest in three major diagnosis factors, and it is the most important factor of the sustainable development. Natural condition confinement factor and resources condition influence factor are the support factors of the sustainable development, and they reflect the potential of the sustainable development. The synthetical strength evaluation of the sustainable development level in the Heihe oasis reveals that both ends are low, and the middle is high. By analysis of the influence factors combining F_3, the potential space of level in the Heihe oasis shows decreasing tendency from the upstream to the downstream. Finally, the major countermeasures of the sustainable development are put forward, based on actual strength.