我国主要农业气象灾害机理与监测研究进展

Advances in research on mechanism and monitoring of agro-meteorological disasters in China

对我国农业气象灾害机理与监测方面的研究进行了深入系统的回顾与评述,阐述了我国主要农业灾害研究的前沿领域和学术问题,探讨了农业灾害研究的发展趋势。灾害性天气只是农业成灾的外部环境条件(环境胁迫),在这种环境胁迫下,农业生产系统是否最终成灾,还要取决于农业生产系统本身对这种环境胁迫的应对和作用。因此农业灾害机理反映了环境胁迫与农业生产系统的相互作用和相互影响。当前,对农业灾害机理研究不足,农业成灾过程和关键因子认识不深入,农业灾害监测理论与方法不完善,已经成为建立有效的农业灾害监测预警系统、开展灾害时空动态监测,以及国家进行重大防灾减灾决策的瓶颈和障碍。对主要农业灾害机理开展研究以及发展农业灾害理论和监测方法,是国家实现农业发展目标的需要,也是多门相关学科理论与方法发展的需要。

In this paper,the authors review the recent advances in research on mechanism and monitoring of agro-meteorological disasters in China, with a focus on revealing the front issues and development trends of the study area. Abnormalweather processesare the exteriorenvironmental conditions (environmental stresses) in formation of agricultural disasters. Whetheror not the agriculture systems become disaster under these stresses, it still depends on the reaction of agricultural systems to the stresses. Therefore, the mechanism of agricultural disaster formation is the interaction and interrelation betweenthe atmospheric force and the agricultural system. On the basis of current study status and the national demands on anti-disasters, it is suggested that the concentration of the study area should be given more to the interaction between abnormal atmospheric process and agricultural system in formation of agriculturaldisasters. This direction will be the development trend of the study area in recent future in order to meet both the multi-disciplinaryrequirements and society demands.