三江平原气候变暖的进一步认识:最高和最低气温的变化

Further understanding of the Sanjiang Plain warming:changes in maximum and minimum air temperature

利用三江平原17个站1951-2000年的平均最高、最低气温和气温日较差资料,采用线性倾向估计和几种突变检测方法,定量研究了最高、最低气温和气温日较差变化趋势的空间分布,比较了最高、最低气温变化特征的差异性。结合前期的相关研究结果,对研究区20世纪70年代中期以来的三江平原气候变暖过程和成因有了进一步的认识。1975-2000年的变暖时期主要由两个阶段构成:1975-1987年为第一阶段,以夜间升温为主要特征,相对应的是气温日较差明显减小,超过一定面积的湿地开垦是该阶段气候变暖的主要驱动力之一;1987-2000年为第二阶段,以白天和夜间同时升温且幅度相当,气温日较差没有明显的变化趋势为特点,这一阶段的升温是对全球气候变暖同步的区域响应。

Based on observed data of mean monthly maximum and minimum air temperature and diurnal range of temperature from 17 meteorological stations in the Sanjiang Plain from 1951 to 2000, the spatial distributions of trends of maximum and minimum air temperature and diurnal range of temperature were obtained using linear tendency method and the abrupt changes of air temperature were examined by Cumulative Anomaly method, Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method. The further understanding was gained from the process and causes of the Sanjiang Plain warming since the middle of 1970s: the warming period of 1975 to 2000 comprised 2 phases. One of them was from 1975 to 1987 in which warming occurred at night mainly and corresponding diurnal range of temperature decreased obviously, and the most important cause of climate warming was large-scale reclamation of wetlands; the other was 1987 to 2000 during which air temperature increase happened both in daytime and at night simultaneously and corresponding diurnal range of temperature had no any trend, and the warming was a regional response to global warming.