个体理性、风险偏好、社会地位与我国消费增长——基于跨期替代资产选择理论模型的研究

Individual Rationality, Risk Preference, Social Status and the Consumption Growth in China

文章基于跨期替代资产选择理论,建立了一个较符合我国实际的模型,并结合相关经济数据,将其用以分析我国消费增长问题。研究结果发现:(1)提高跨期替代弹性是解决我国消费不足问题的关键;(2)通过减少个体风险偏好或提高其对社会地位的重视程度来增加消费的方法在理论上并不可行;(3)通过减少贫富差距来减少社会地位因素的受重视程度,可能对刺激消费有一定作用。

Based on the theory of intertemporal substitution and asset allocation, this paper establishes a suitable model for China. By this model and the corresponding economic data, we analyze the problems in China’s consumption growth. We find that (1) the key to the underconsumption problem is how to improve the elasticity of intertemporal substitution; (2) changing individual risk preference or improving individual social status is not theoretically feasible; (3) narrowing the earning gap may be helpful in stimulating consumption.