央行票据对冲外汇占款的成本、经济后果分析——兼评冲销干预的可持续性

An Analysis of the Cost of the Central Bank Notes Offsetting Position for Forex Purchase and Its Economic Influence

在我国现行的外汇管理体制下,为应对大量的投机性外汇资金涌入我国,央行采取了发行央行票据的方式来对冲外汇占款,目的是为了同时实现稳定人民币汇率和避免通货膨胀的双目标。但文章认为,在投机性外汇资金持续涌入我国的条件下,央行票据对冲外汇占款的政策存在两个缺陷,即对冲成本太高以及有可能导致经济“滞胀”现象的发生。这就意味着从长期的政策操作效果来看,以央行票据来对冲外汇占款是很难同时实现稳定人民币汇率和避免通货膨胀这双重目标的,也说明冲销干预政策难以具有长期的可持续性。

Under the present Forex management system in China, in order to handle the entering of the large speculative foreign exchange funds, the central bank offsets position for forex purchase through issuing central bank’s notes to stabilize RMB exchange rate and avoid inflation. This paper argues that there are two defects of the above policy in the condition of continuing entering of speculative foreign exchange funds, namely too high offsetting cost and the possibility of the halt of economic growth and inflation. That means, in the long run, it is difficult to stabilize RMB exchange rate and avoid inflation through offsetting position for forex purchase by issuing central bank’s notes.